Focus on Rural America: New Polling Shows Harris Leading in Michigan and Wisconsin, Tied with Trump in Pennsylvania

Oct 2, 2024 | News, Report

Des Moines, IA – A new poll conducted by Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies between September 19th and
23rd reveals Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Michigan and
Wisconsin, while the race is tied in Pennsylvania. The survey of 400 likely voters in each state also show
Democratic Senate candidates leading in all three states.
Former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge, co-founder of Focus on Rural America said, “It’s a big mistake to think
Trump-Vance have a lock on rural voters. Harris-Walz are out performing Trump and Vance in farm
state battlegrounds and they maintain a strong advantage on issues that matter the most to rural
voters.”
“Senate Democrats also hold decisive leads in key Midwest battlegrounds,” continued Judge. “Democrat
appeal runs deep in rural America, including access to rural health care, fighting for farmers and
biofuels, and protecting investments in climate smart agriculture.”

Presidential Race Highlights:

  • Michigan: Harris leads Trump 51% to 45%.
  • Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump 51% to 45%.
  • Pennsylvania: Harris and Trump are tied at 48%.
    Harris’ support is particularly strong among independent voters and women, with significant gender
    gaps in Michigan and Wisconsin. Harris leads among women by 20 points in Michigan and 21 points in
    Wisconsin, while Trump holds an edge with male voters.
    Key Issues Where Harris-Walz Lead:
  • Working with both parties: Harris-Walz lead by 12-16 points across the three states.
  • Unifying the country: Harris-Walz hold a double-digit lead in all states.
  • Telling the truth and leading with character: Harris-Walz lead by 7-13 points across the board.
    Senate Races:
  • Michigan: Elissa Slotkin leads Mike Rogers, 50% to 45%.
  • Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin leads Eric Hovde, 52% to 44%.
  • Pennsylvania: Bob Casey leads David McCormick, 47% to 45%.
    The survey shows Democratic candidates performing strongly across multiple key issues, indicating
    competitive races heading into the final stretch of the 2024 election.
    Contact: Fmr. Lt. Gov. Patty Judge
    Focus on Rural America
    Email: info@focusruralamerica.org

Phone: (515) 210-2071

Heartland Poll, October 2020: Biden Leads in Key Battleground States

Oct 14, 2020 | Report

With 20 days to go until the election, likely  November 2020 voters shows that voters in Iowa have moved toward President Trump, while voters in Minnesota and Wisconsin are strongly in Biden’s camp.   Moreover, 46 percent of voters in these states say that they feel more negatively about Trump than they did in 2016, compared to just 37% who feel more positively toward the President.

HORSE RACE

The survey shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a 50-45 lead over President Trump across these three states, with 6 percent saying they are undecided at this juncture. This includes 47 percent who say that they will definitely vote for Biden, compared with 43 percent who say they will definitely vote for Trump.

However, opinion differs strongly by state, with Iowa voters preferring Trump by 50-44, while Wisconsin voters prefer Biden by 53-43, and Minnesota voters prefer Biden by 52-41.   Wisconsin seems to have especially firmed up for the former Vice President, with 51% of Wisconsin voters saying they will definitely vote for Biden.

If the election for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

 

Biden

Trump

Overall

50

45

Iowa

44

50

Minnesota

52

41

Wisconsin

53

43

Compared to the previous FORA poll in August, Iowa has moved toward Trump (was 49-43 Biden), while Minnesota and Wisconsin are similar to the August poll (Minnesota was 54-36, Wisconsin was 53-42).  Please note higher margin of error on the state specific samples.  With 200 per state, each individual state is subject to a margin of error of 7%.

VOTERS SOURING ON TRUMP

Biden’s lead comes as 47 percent of likely voters across these four states say they feel more negatively about Trump than they did when he was running for election in 2016, compared to 37% who feel more positively.  A plurality in each state say they are more negative on the President today, compared to 2016. 

Thinking about your opinion of Donald Trump when he was running for election in 2016, is your opinion of him today …

 

More Positive

More Negative

Overall

37

47

Iowa

38

44

Minnesota

37

52

Wisconsin

36

47

Overall, 47 percent of voters in these states disapprove of the job that Trump is doing as President, including a majority of voters in each of these states. A plurality in each state also believes that Trump typically puts his interests and his reelection before the interests of the American people.

If you had to choose, would you say Donald Trump puts…

 

The American people first

His interests and his reelection first

Overall

44

52

Iowa

47

48

Minnesota

43

53

Wisconsin

43

56

RURAL ISSUES

When asked specifically who would do a better job for people living in small towns and rural America, 47% say Biden and 44% say Trump. 

Between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who do you think would do a better job for people living in small towns and rural America?

 

Biden

Trump

Overall

47

44

Iowa

45

47

Minnesota

47

43

Wisconsin

49

42

METHODOLOGY

RG Strategies conducted a telephone and online survey of 600 likely November 2020 voters from October 10-13. The survey consisted of 200 interviews each in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Respondents were reached either by cell or landline phone, or via text message using phone numbers associated with their voter registration. The margin of error for the entire survey is ± 4.0%, and 6.9% for each individual state.