With 20 days to go until the election, likely  November 2020 voters shows that voters in Iowa have moved toward President Trump, while voters in Minnesota and Wisconsin are strongly in Biden’s camp.   Moreover, 46 percent of voters in these states say that they feel more negatively about Trump than they did in 2016, compared to just 37% who feel more positively toward the President.

HORSE RACE

The survey shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a 50-45 lead over President Trump across these three states, with 6 percent saying they are undecided at this juncture. This includes 47 percent who say that they will definitely vote for Biden, compared with 43 percent who say they will definitely vote for Trump.

However, opinion differs strongly by state, with Iowa voters preferring Trump by 50-44, while Wisconsin voters prefer Biden by 53-43, and Minnesota voters prefer Biden by 52-41.   Wisconsin seems to have especially firmed up for the former Vice President, with 51% of Wisconsin voters saying they will definitely vote for Biden.

Compared to the previous FORA poll in August, Iowa has moved toward Trump (was 49-43 Biden), while Minnesota and Wisconsin are similar to the August poll (Minnesota was 54-36, Wisconsin was 53-42).  Please note higher margin of error on the state specific samples.  With 200 per state, each individual state is subject to a margin of error of 7%.

VOTERS SOURING ON TRUMP

Biden’s lead comes as 47 percent of likely voters across these four states say they feel more negatively about Trump than they did when he was running for election in 2016, compared to 37% who feel more positively.  A plurality in each state say they are more negative on the President today, compared to 2016. 

Overall, 47 percent of voters in these states disapprove of the job that Trump is doing as President, including a majority of voters in each of these states. A plurality in each state also believes that Trump typically puts his interests and his reelection before the interests of the American people.

RURAL ISSUES

When asked specifically who would do a better job for people living in small towns and rural America, 47% say Biden and 44% say Trump. 

METHODOLOGY

RG Strategies conducted a telephone and online survey of 600 likely November 2020 voters from October 10-13. The survey consisted of 200 interviews each in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Respondents were reached either by cell or landline phone, or via text message using phone numbers associated with their voter registration. The margin of error for the entire survey is ± 4.0%, and 6.9% for each individual state.