We’ve got a Caucus Day surprise for you.
Our final *FINAL* poll of the caucus. Here’s how things shook out:
Our last statewide poll had Biden out in front with Warren, Buttigieg, and Sanders each in close contention for the second tier. This time, we went into the field from January 28-30th and polled 300 likely caucusgoers statewide through landlines, cell phones, and text-to-web.
In first we found Pete Buttigieg with 19%, followed by Sanders with 17%, Warren and Biden with 15%, Klobuchar with 11%, and all others well below the viability threshold.
Our biggest takeaway with these final numbers is that anyone who says a particular candidate is best positioned to win is, to borrow from Vice President Biden, full of malarkey. The top four candidates are in a virtual dead heat, and Klobuchar isn’t that far off. That means precinct by precinct delegate counts and realignments are going to make this a nail-biter to the very end. For some more perspective on how this could swing, consider three things:
First, we saw Buttigieg with the highest net favorability, 69%. But the rest of them? Each over 60% — Warren at 68%, Sanders at 64%, Klobuchar at 63%, Biden at 62%. These candidates are all broadly liked here in Iowa.
Second: Realignment considerations. 70% of those we reached told us they’ll stick around and pick another candidate if their choice doesn’t reach viability. And of those who say they intend to realign, Warren gets 20%, Klobuchar 17%, Biden 17%, Sanders 13%, and Buttigieg 10%.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, just 51% of those we surveyed indicated that they were 100% certain of their choice. For those in Iowa or who have visited the state, this is likely consistent with your experience. Even in this final stage, many are still making their final decision — not to mention their second or third choice.
It’s been a wild ride, and we’re excited to see the results at the end of the night. Whether you’ve been following us since our first poll in September of 2018 or you’re jumping in now, thanks for tuning in. And to all of the staff, volunteers, media, caucusgoers, and especially the candidates: Good luck tonight.